FatBracket Calcutta: Analyzing Past Upsets and Triumphs

February 2, 2024

FatBracket Calcutta: Analyzing Past Upsets and Triumphs
The annual FatBracket Calcutta auction is a beloved tradition for many sports fans. As the rules outline, bidding strategy is crucial to building a successful portfolio of teams. Looking back at past NCAA tournaments can provide insightful lessons on scoring upsets and avoiding major losses.

Upsets Happen, But Not Always With Lower Seeds
While we may think of upsets as low seeds toppling powerhouses, some of the biggest upsets have actually occurred when middling seeds knock off top contenders. As the rules note, in the past 33 tournaments, #1 seeds have lost to #16 seeds just twice. However, #2 and #3 seeds fall much more regularly to #14, #15 seeds.

Smart bidders focus on the #5 vs #12 and #6 vs #11 matchups as frequent upset danger zones. #14, #15 seeds can also threaten elite teams, as we've seen over the years with huge upsets like #15 Lehigh over #2 Duke in 2012. Avoid overpaying for top seeds and target middle seeds like #12s and #13s for upset potential.

Spotting Blowout Potentials
As the sample 2014 auction shows, blowouts produce big dividends. Look for signs of lopsided contests: #1 and #2 seeds blasting #15 and #16 seeds, or talented mid-major squads surprising vulnerable major conference foes. Huge historic blowout margins like Gonzaga's 43-point win over Norfolk State in 2021 demonstrate the potential payoffs.

While blowouts frequently involve #1 seeds crushing #16s, they can also come from less anticipated contests. Do your homework on both side's strengths and weaknesses to identify games primed for whitewashes.

First Four Bidding Requires Finesse
The rules indicate that First Four teams often garner bids 50% higher than their seeding merits. Resist the urge to overpay for these play-in game combatants. Though they gain momentum with an extra win, most fail to advance much further. Target First Four teams at a price appropriate to their talent level, not inflated by recency bias.

In Calcutta bidding, maintaining perspective is paramount. The excitement of the auction room can cloud judgment. By learning from previous tournaments, bidders gain an analytical edge to assemble a high-value, upset-powered stable of teams. Do your bracketology homework, and let history guide your strategy.

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